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I'm asking this question because the only answer on the web right now is pretty old and I assume this is a common question. The above link refers to an FAA page that says:

We are currently processing permanent Airmen Certificates for temporary certificates that were issued approximately May 3, 2015.

The above quote hasn't been updated in weeks.

How long does it normally take to get a new certificate in the mail?

Does it vary substantially?

Is there a better place than the above link to get an idea of how long a certificate will take to be processed?

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The Airmen Certification page you linked to is the best place to get a quick status update - the little note at the top gets updated when they move into a new batch of certificates. You can also search for yourself in the airmen certification database: When your new certificate or rating shows up there your certificate is probably in the mail.

How long it takes to get your permanent certificate depends mainly on how many they have in the queue ahead of you - Mine took about 60 days, but I've heard as little as 30 and as long as 100+.
If you're getting close to the expiration of your temporary certificate you can request an extension either online or at your local FSDO (more details over on this answer)

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It appears that a 'batch' is about 4 weeks long- mine was April 21 to May 10. It also changed to the next batch in late June, so they are about 7 weeks behind the day, and it took about 7 weeks to process the certificate - at least in my case.

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For me, I filed on May 22, 2017 and didn't receive my card until July 24 so it seems to be about 2 months.

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