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After the last crash, numerous articles state that the Superjet has a poor safety record. Two fatal crashes in 8 years is not a lot, but then again, only around 150 planes have been delivered. Does anybody have numbers of fatal crashes pr. million flights, or similar?

Accidents pr. million flights for other major airplane models: http://www.airsafe.com/events/models/rate_mod.htm

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  • $\begingroup$ Most of the articles I have read concentrate on the poor reliability record and issues with maintenance. Did you have any specific articles in mind? $\endgroup$ – RedGrittyBrick May 8 at 14:55
  • $\begingroup$ Maybe the titles are inaccurate to clickbait, but I think of articles like this: "Industry observers: Sukhoi Superjet Crash No Surprise": freebeacon.com/national-security/… "Sukhoi Superjet 100: Plagued by serious incidents and accidents: (In Norwegian): hangar.no/… $\endgroup$ – OleDahle May 8 at 17:35
  • $\begingroup$ It doesn't matter how well engineered a plane might be, what matters is maintenance. If you cut corners or do a shoddy job, problems are bound to creep up. As the smartest mechanic I know always says, "I never replaced an engine on a vehicle where the proper maintenance was performed." $\endgroup$ – gwally May 8 at 18:40
  • $\begingroup$ @gwally The issue is, like anything involving humans, maintenance mistakes do occur and it is simply impossible to guarantee they will not. Proper engineering allows for this by expecting that failures will occur and limiting their impact. Likewise maintenance is there to catch design and manufacturing errors. All part of the swiss cheese model. $\endgroup$ – user71659 May 8 at 19:05
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The plane was flown into the ground with a clearly visible and well-known landing error, pitching down after a bounce. That said, to blame it squarely on the pilots is premature, especially as the crew will soon be able to shed light on what happened. I've done some of the same in simulators with heavy instrument failures, although their poor/lacking damage models let you get away with it.

On the actual question, the Superjet does not yet have a meaningful safety record of any kind, good or bad. It's seen far too little use, and it only had two accidents, one of which was confirmed as a pure human error CFIT. Driving a perfectly intact plane into a mountainside is akin to driving a car off a bridge.

This leaves one accident where the plane had any faults at all, and such a small sample size is not enough to build any sort of statistics out of.

It's also difficult to distinguish cause and effect in the plane's simultaneous loss of popularity and reduction in support service levels amidst a political rift between its manufacturer's home country and most of the world, or infer anything technical from that.

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Does anybody have numbers of fatal crashes pr. million flights, or similar?

Not that I can find.

Too little data?

In terms of airline passenger miles, the SSJ100 seems to account for a tiny proportion of passenger miles in Russia.

Non russian airlines have eliminated or scaled-back use of the SSJ100

According to Time

Mexico’s Interjet said Sunday it operated five of the planes “under the highest safety standards.”

Interjet has previously said it has 22 Superjets but referred in a recent earnings report to the “gradual phase out of the fleet of SSJ100.” The company reported it lost sales after some planes were temporarily out of service after a warning from Russia’s aviation authority about a potential defect in the tail section in December 2016. Interjet also said it was seeking contractual recovery of maintenance costs associated with the plane.

Irish operator CityJet have dropped their leased SSJ100s from their fleet.

The safety issue is probably operator and environment, not planes

The reports I have read suggest that the safety issues are with the operators, regulators and airspace management.

The SSJ100 is now almost exclusively operated by Russian Airlines and Russia's air safety record is allegedly the worst in the world.

The Washington Post reports

“In Russia, there is reliably one big crash with corpses per year,” Mikhail Barabanov, an analyst at the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow think tank, said in a Facebook post. “According to statistics from international organizations, air traffic safety in the Russian Federation and the CIS in 2018 was the worst in the world — worse than Africa.”

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  • $\begingroup$ You mentioned that you know about the major parts availability issues with this plane. That is a concern in itself because it may lead to safety issues. It causes aircraft to operate with many deferred items for long periods of time, and brings the temptation overlook faults and reuse unairworthy components. For this reason, FAA requires airlines have adequate spares on hand before introducing a new type and during regular operation. Similar issues occur with old aircraft, see Allegiant and the MD-80. $\endgroup$ – user71659 May 8 at 16:32
  • $\begingroup$ I agree that there is too little data at this time to compare statistics in a meaningful manner. I found some quotes on the number of flights on WIkipedia, approximately around 300.000 flights by September 2018. That would make the Superjet seem even worse than the 737 MAX, but with (thankfully!) just 2 accidents, it's hard to calculate statistics. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Superjet_100#Operational_history $\endgroup$ – OleDahle May 8 at 17:41

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