First we can use the definitions of w, u, alpha, and beta to define
$$ \frac{w}{u} = \tan\alpha $$
$$ u = Vcos(\alpha)cos(\beta) $$
Now lets look closer at the first equation you provided using the definitions above:
$$\frac{d\alpha}{dt} = \frac{1}{1+\frac{w^2}{u^2}} \left(\frac{w'}{u}-\frac{u'w}{u^2}\right) = \frac{1}{1+\tan^2\alpha} \left(\frac{w'}{V\cos\alpha\cos\beta}-\frac{u'\tan\alpha}{V\cos\alpha\cos\beta}\right) $$
Which can be simplified further with trig identities to
$$\frac{d\alpha}{dt} = \frac{\cos(\alpha)w'-\sin(\alpha )u'}{V\cos\beta} $$
We can see that we're on the right track here, using first-order approximations, w'/V is approximately q and u'/m is approximately Z (by Newton's second law). From the sines and cosines we can tell that pitch rate on its own is only a valid approximation while alpha is small.
Why The Term For Z?
Why is force included here? Because angle of attack and pitch are measured in different frames and a change in airspeed could cause you to overestimate or underestimate the new angle of attack. This isn't novel or particular to the case of missiles, as a similar equation appears in Real-Time Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation without Air Flow Angle Measurements by Eugene Morelli, and I've seen similar kinematic equations used in avionics.
Let's draw what happens graphically:

From the image we see that while flight path is changing, pitch angle changes alone won't account for all the differences. We also have to account for a change in flight path angle relative to the airmass, which can be approximated using the component of flight path change that's perpendicular to the flight path. If we assume angle of attack is small or that Z is perpendicular to the flight path instead of to the body, this rotation equals arctan(Z_w/ (m*V)).
Further derivation with fewer approximations
Now the piece omitted in other answers. The kinematic equations of motion as shwon in Morelli, et al:
$$ w' = q u-p v + g*a_z+g\cos\phi\cos\theta $$
$$ u' = r v - q w + g a_x + g \sin\theta $$
Plugging in the definitions for u,v, and w as function of V, alpha, and beta into these equations and then inserting those into our formula for the derivative of alpha gives (see Morelli, et al. for more information)
$$\frac{d\alpha}{dt} = q + p\sin\beta + \frac{g}{V}\left(-\sin\alpha\left(a_x-sin\theta\right)+\cos\alpha\left(a_z+\cos\phi\cos\theta\right)\right) $$
Note that even though we used calculus and trig identities, not kinematics to get this equation, it matches the expected rotation matrix for angular rates between the body frame and the wind frame, using this example, or also this question:
$$ \begin{bmatrix} \delta \phi \\ \delta \alpha \\ \delta \beta \end{bmatrix}=
M_{a,b2w} \begin{bmatrix} \delta p \\ \delta q \\ \delta r \end{bmatrix} $$
$$ M_{a,b2w} = \begin{bmatrix}
\cos\alpha\cos\beta & \sin\beta & 0 \\
-\cos\alpha\sin\beta & \cos\beta & 0 \\
\sin\alpha & 0 & 1 \\
\end{bmatrix} $$
We can convert those pesky accelerations (well, pesky if you're not trying to measure them, then they're really handy) and include gravity in the total force:
$$ T_{f,z}/m = g \left(-\sin\alpha\left(a_x-sin\theta\right)+\cos\alpha\left(a_z+\cos\phi\cos\theta\right)\right) $$
And we get:
$$\frac{d\alpha}{dt} = q - p\sin\beta + \frac{T_{f,z}}{m V} $$
So with some generous assumptions that sideslip and roll rates are small so p*sin(beta)≈0, that Z includes gravity already, and that Z is mostly aligned perpendicular to the incoming wind, this equals your original formula, we've shown that
$$\frac{d\alpha}{dt} \approx q + \frac{T_{f,z}}{m V} $$
Variables used
p,q,r = roll, pitch and yaw rates in the body frame
ϕ,α,β = roll, angle of attack, and sideslip angles
u,v,w = Components of aircraft velocity along the body longitudinal, lateral, and normal directions
ϕ,θ = Roll and pitch in the inertial frame
V = Total velocity, vector sum of u,v,w
T_fz = Total force perpendicular to the flight path, pointing in opposite direction of angle of attack
m = Aircraft mass
References:
- Eugene A. Morelli, Real-Time Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation without Air Flow Angle Measurements