It is situational. Locally there have been three Cessna ditchings that I have first hand knowledge of. One of them resulted in an inversion. The other two did not.
The general wisdom seems to be that high wing aircraft are more likely to upset than low wing aircraft. I do not know what NSTB statistics are.
I am sure there are factors such as: vertical CG, AOA and or the attitide hitting the water, glassy water vs rough conditions, wind, gear dressings (tires, pants) etc. At one time, probably 18 or so years ago, I saw a aeronautical engineering student's work on a simulation to model the likelihood of upsets using various commuter and short haul aircraft models, and what might happen in a ditching. I have not seen anything more definitive since.
In the interim, if you plan on over water flights, the FAA safety seminar where one practices egress inverted and underwater, is a nice seminar. I have taken it twice, and I learn as much the second time around as I did the first. Fortunately, I have only had to demonstrate my skills in a high school swimming pool.
Not all water is as friendly as the Hudson during daylight hours.