I've wondered about this, too. From what I've discovered looking around online (and I am NOT a pilot or physicist) is that it's something of a myth -- at least in terms of the dramatic waterspout-effect like in the painting above and countless movies.
A fast, low-flying jet may create some shockwaves (not to be confused with the "vapor cone") that would disturb the surface of water, or some updraft that sucks up spray, but nowhere near the massive amount of water depicted.
The idea may have started because of images like below, where a Blue Angle flies low over water then, as it pulls up, the jet engines directly angled toward the water do indeed blast a huge spray -- but that's very different than sucking up water in level flight.
So, the answer is: yes, a low-flying jet can disturb the surface of water, but not quite in the way it's depicted in the movies.