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Is there a clearly identifiable and measurable pilot shortage right now? If so, is it a shortage of pilots or of captains, i.e. more experienced pilots? Are airlines changing any personnel rules - like time to go from first officer to captain - that would imply there is a pilot shortage?
If any shortage is for captains couldn't airlines 'upgrade' first officers to fill the places? But presumably that would create a shortage of FOs in turn.
Here in the US (because this varies around the world) some sources do say there is a pilot shortage. There are many reasons that have been cited for the decrease in pilots here in the states. But the main points seem to be,
Another factor that effects this once you are in the industry is the fact that "seniority" does not transfer over from airline to airline. Generally this is not an issue if you work for someone like American or Delta who have plenty of jobs and steady routes. But if you are captain at NotSoWellEstablishedAir and they go belly up you will most likely join one of the others lower in the ranks if not at the bottom.
Another thing that is worth mentioning is that it may be more advantageous for a pilot to remain a very senior first officer instead of becoming a very junior captain. You may have more power over your route choice, time off, and general schedule as a senior first officer than as a newly minted captain. For some pilots, like those who may be trying to start a family this may be seen as an advantage.
As for the shortage over seas (outside the US) that stems from different issues. First and foremost many countries have seen great and more importantly fast economic prosperity which has allowed them to get into the aviation game. A game traditionally filled with high costs and heavy regulations. As such many newly wealthy nations have been able to enter the aviation world much faster than their regulations and training programs can keep up with. The FAA is almost 60 years old with aviation regulations dating back to the 30's with the CAA. There are even some american issued pilots licensed signed by the Wrights them selves from the very early days. Other countries simply don't have the history of growing with aviation like the US and similar countries have had. Thus they have all these new planes but no one to fly them and no well established programs and regulations to create the pilots. In turn they are forced to import trained, certified pilots from elsewhere.
I'll put it this way: There wouldn't be a pilot shortage if the pay was right and regulators would stop putting in place roadblocks to professional airline pilot training like the asinine 1500 hour rule for first officers.
The saddest thing about this nation's corps of professional pilots is that it's a profession of people who absolutely love what they do and are exploited and treated as wage slaves by company brass who know this.
At this point, though, things are beginning to change in the USA. The airlines are faced with a glut of senior captains over 65 now and forced to take mandatory retirement. With typical starting salaries for regional FOs being about \$18-\$22k based upon a realistic calculation of pay, being on duty for 14-16 hours a day, and forced to live in crowded apartments with several other pilots, it's no wonder that people pursuing a career as a professional pilot have dwindled. This in contrast with the rising demand for pilots has created a situation where the airlines have no choice but to act. Salaries are being increased, and many airlines are adopting their own flight training programs where they cover the costs to train promising candidates in exchange for a mandatory employment contract for an agreed upon length of time (usually about 7 or so years).
